The Demand for Inputs and the Supply of Output in Pakistan: Estimating a Fixedeffects, Distributed-lag Model for Wheat Farmers

Anil B. Deolallkar, Stephen A . Vosti


Agricultural growth in Pakistan over the past 3 decades has
been very impressive, averaging 3.3 percent annually over the period
1965-80, and accelerating to 4.3 percent per year over the period
1980-90. But as impressive as these numbers are, questions arise
regarding the success of the agricultural sector in terms of meeting
food and employment needs, the potential for continuing or increasing
growth rates in the future, the likely sources of future agricultural
growth, and the technologies, policies, and institutional arrangements
necessary to achieve that growth. The truth is that agriculture in
general, and food production in particular, have been working hard to
just to keep pace with other sectors and with the food needs of the
domestic population. Agriculture was the slowest growing sector in
Pakistan over the past 30 years, with general economic expansion moving
along at an average of 5.2 percent annually over the 1965-80 period, and
of 6.3 percent per year over the decade of the 1980s. In addition, in
spite of very . substantial production and productivity gains for most
major crops, the average index of food production per capita remained
constant over the 1980-90 period, while the total volume of cereal
imports nearly doubled to over 2,048,000 metric tons [World Development
Report (1992)].

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