Period Without a Job After Returning from the Middle East: A Survival Analysis

Ghulam M. Arif


Since the mid-1980s Pakistan has faced return flows of its
workers from the Middle East on a large scale. The re-employment
experience of returning workers has usually been examined by focusing on
the unemployment rate. This paper concentrates on ‘duration of
unemployment’ and examines the influences of socio-demographic
characteristics of returnees and their households on the transition from
being ‘not employed’ to being employed by estimating the proportional
hazards model. The 1986 ILO survey of return migrant households is the
data source used in this study. The majority of returnees who were ‘not
employed’ (unemployed and inactive) had been without a job for more than
one year. Nearly one-quarter of them had not been working for more than
two years. The analysis shows that variables indicating the human
capital of return migrants, such as age, education, occupation and work
experience, appear to have greater influence on their re-employment
probabilities than variables related to economic position, such as

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