A Probit Analysis of the Incidence of the Cotton Leaf Curl Virus in Punjab, Pakistan

Munir Ahmad, George E. Battese


Factors affecting the incidence of the cotton leaf curl virus
(CLCV) in Punjab, Pakistan are investigated using a probit model. The
results indicate that the history of a cotton variety grown on the farm,
better land preparation before sowing, and use of pesticides and
phosphorus fertiliser significantly reduce the probability of incidence
of the CLCV disease. The farmers having greater areas under cotton are
less likely to be affected by the disease. Fields of the more
experienced farmers, who have greater years of formal education, are
also less likely to be affected, because these farmers are believed to
be better managers. However, the probability of damage was positively
related to age of the farmer, which implies that the aged farmers have
less managerial capabilities. The intensity of the disease varied from
district to district and also from variety to variety. Use of greater
amounts of nitrogenous fertiliser, more severe insect attacks, and late
sowing of the cotton crop significantly increase the incidence of the
CLCV disease.

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.30541/v36i2pp.155-169


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