Measuring the Effects of Population Control on Economic Development: A Case Study of Pakistan

Edgar M. Hoover, Mark Perlman


The terms of reference of this report are to indicate the
"impact of alternative foreseeable population trends upon economic
development prospects and assistance needs of less developed countries".
In it we consider the effects of varying the rate of natural increase of
population on a "less developed" country's efforts to improve its
general economic well being. Pakistan, for the period 1965-85, is the
specific case examined. In the context of Pakistan's development
constraints and plans, we have attempted to measure what difference it
would make in prospects for progress if mortality and/or fertility rates
were changed. The demographic contingencies to be considered include i)
a progressive reduction of mortality through improved environmental,
medical, and nutritional conditions; and if) a progressive reduction in
fertility through government sponsored family-planning efforts. There
are obviously many aspects of the development process that depend upon
how population is growing. We have focussed on evaluating the population
impact in terms of selected characteristics of the national economy
including aggregate and per capita income, savings, and consumption, the
composition of output and employment by major productive sectors, and
the degree of deĀ¬pendence on import of capital.

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