Distributional Impacts of Agricultural Growth in Pakistan: A Multiplier Analysis

Paul Dorosh, Muhammad Khan Niazi, Hina Nazli

Abstract


In spite of substantial growth in agricultural GDP in the
1990s, rural poverty rates in Pakistan did not decline. This paper
explores the reasons for this lack of correlation between increases in
agricultural production and poverty reduction through an analysis of
growth linkages using a 2001-02 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM)-based
semi-inputoutput model. Model simulations indicate that expansion of
traditional crop agriculture can significantly benefit rural poor
farmers. However, because of skewed distribution of land and earnings
from land, landless agricultural labourers and the rural non-farm poor
(who, together, account for 61 percent of the rural poor) do not benefit
directly from growth in the crop sector. In the absence of a change in
the structure of rural incomes and employment, further measures will
likely be needed for rapid poverty reduction in Pakistan, including
greater efforts to boost the livestock sector, expansion of the rural
non-farm economy (in addition to agricultural growth-induced linkage
effects), and targeted interventions to the poorest rural
households.

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.30541/v42i3pp.249-275

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