A Dynamic Analysis of the Relationship among Human Development, Exports and Economic Growth in Pakistan.

Muhammad Afzal, A. Rauf Butt, Mr. Hafeez ur Rehman , Ishrat Begum

Abstract


This study investigates the econometrically empirical evidence
of both the short-run and long-run interrelationships among human
development, exports and economic growth in an ARDL framework for
Pakistan. This study also examines causal linkages among the said
variables by applying the Augmented Granger Causality test of
Toda-Yamamoto (1995). By using data on Pakistan’s real GDP, real exports
and Human Development Index (HDI) for the period 1970-71 to 2008-09,
three models have been estimated. The results show cointegration between
economic growth, physical capital, real exports and human development
when human development is taken as dependent variables. Furthermore,
unidirectional Granger causality running from real GDP to real exports
has been found in Bivariate, Trivariate and Tetravariate causality
framework. The inclusion of HDI as a measure of human development
reduces the physical capital share in real GDP whereas it improves the
robustness of the regression model. Real GDP seems to provide resources
to improve human development in only the long-run while human capital
accumulation does not seem to accelerate real GDP both in the short-run
and the long-run. The empirical results of the study do not support
‘export-led growth hypothesis’ and human capital-based endogenous growth
theory in case of Pakistan, however, it does support ‘growth-driven
exports hypothesis’ in case of Pakistan. JEL classification: O11
Keywords: Human Development, Exports, Economic Growth, ARDL,
Causality

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.30541/v48i4IIpp.885-920

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