Economics of Property Crime Rate in Punjab

Shahzad Mahmood Jabbar, Hasan M. Mohsin


This study intends to ascertain the impact of socio-economic,
demographic and deterrent variables and the effect of technical criminal
know-how and past criminal experience on property crime rate. The
property crime equation comprises of the following independent
variables: population density, unemployment rate, literacy rate, police
strength and number of police proclaimed offenders in a society. The
property crime equation has been estimated by using a time-series data
set for Punjab from 1978 to 2012. We have applied Johansen cointegration
approach to test the long run relationship among the variables.
Empirical findings suggest that police strength has a deterrent effect
while past criminal experience enhances property crime rate in Punjab.
The study finds population density has a significant positive
relationship while education has a significant negative relationship
with property crime rate. Further we also find a negative relationship
between unemployment and property crime which is supported by the
concept of ‘consensus of doubt’ in the discipline of crime and
economics. JEL Classification: D6

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