A Model for Forecasting Wheat Production in the Punjab

B. A. Azhar, M. Ghaffar Chaudhry, M. Shafique

Abstract


The purpose of the study is to explore the possibility of
developing an econometric model which would help in explaining and
predicting changes in wheat production in the Punjab. Wheat is a major
crop in the province occupy┬Čing nearly 40 per cent of the total
cultivated area and about 2/3 of the area under Rabi crops. It is by far
the most important food crop providing nearly 2/3 of the total calorie
intake. Accurate forecasting of wheat production is critical for
planning process. Wheat production in the province increased from 27.2
lakh tons in 1949-50 to 56 lakh tons in 1972-73 or 106 per cent. The
increase in production was achieved largely by the increase in wheat
area which rose from 59.1 lakh acres in 1949-50 to 107.9 lakh acres in
1972-73 or nearly 83 per cent. About 80 per cent of the wheat acreage is
irrigated and only 20 per cent is grown in the Barani land. The yield
per acre which was 12.38 maunds in 1949-50 declined to only 9.17 maunds
in 1959-60 but increased sharply to 14.14 maund in 1972-73.

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.30541/v12i4pp.407-415

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