Ashok Parikh. The Estimation and Forecasting of Trade Shares. Bangkok: United Nations Publication, 1986.344 pp.(Development Papers No.5)

Ashfaque H. Khan


Macro-econometric' models have proved their worth as tools of
intelligent policy-making in a large number of countries where the
required data are reasonably good. Hence, despite lingering doubts cast
by the rational-expectations school about its utility for macro-economic
management, macro-econometric model building has continued unabated. It
is, however, well known that national econometric models tell an
incomplete story about the international linkages of national economies.
Even though every respectable national model contains foreign trade
equations, the country-Wide macro-models do not contain the equations to
permit the model-builders to incorporate explicit1y the inter-country
linkages. It was this realization that led to the creation of Project
LINK at the University of Pennsylvania in 1968 under the supervision of
Professor Lawrence Klein. Similar efforts are also being pursued by the
ESCAP Secretariat thrOUgh Project Asian SUb-Unk to promote a better
understanding of the extent of interdependence among the economies of
the region. Lately the Asian and Pacific Development Centre, (APDC) in
collaboration with the Pakistan Ipstitute of Development Economics
(PIDE), has undertaken similar efforts to link the economies of South
Asian countries to promote a better understanding of the extent of
interdependence through international trade among the economies of the

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